Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Obama to Disappoint?

I have little time, but it is about 130am before the Obama inauguration. I want to make a quick prediction.

He will give a stirring speech, but will guide down on the economy and expectations about the stimilus. He knows it will take time to fix the economy and knows it isn't in his interest to raise expectations now. Plus, he has less incentive to push hard on the economy because the electorare will associate the crisis with Bush -- just as the Great Depression was Hoover (things like Hoovervilles...)

Global stocks did poorly on MLK day Monday as fears spread about Barclays, RBS. The U.S. market had a false breakout early this month and have sold off since. If the S&P 500 consolidates below 865, I expect a new downtrend that will set new lows. I'd expect the index to fall to about 675.

The S&P 500 fell to the 800-900 range at three different times over the space of nine months in the 2002-3 period, each time rebounding from roughly the same low. This time we have stayed in the same range for more than three months straight. I don't think those lows will hold as lasting support.

One more I don't like: Apple. It may be forming a double bottom around 79.78, but may not bounce much. I heard some people saying bullish things about it, but expect to see resistence around 85. If it fails to break that, it's a short.
It makes sense fundamentally because the strong dollar will weaken the size of their global sales. Furthermore, I heard at least one analyst mention that Circuit City is causing deflation in compueter prices as it liquidates its inventory.
For a consumer already facing tough times, the Mac's premium price tag may suddenly become a problem.

I now like airlines because they have fixed their problems and will make tons of money from cheaper oil. One long shot crazy play might be to buy gun makers Ruger and Smith & Wesson. They are very small. Again, news reports indicate huge gun buying as people fear Obama will reduce availability of firearms. Even if he does, the stocks should bounce on any kind of good news. (None of which is reflected in the stock prices.)

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