Monday, February 25, 2008

decoupling returns

during the month of january, all anyone heard was that decoupling had been disproven... a US recession would definitely slow the rest of the world.

this is true for many -- china and south korea in particular. both look pretty broken. china is already very expensive and seems poised for real downside. china seems sure to slow after the olympics, potentially triggering bank failures ... I thnk they will struggle to grow earnings and money will flow from their stocks, especially in the case of a US recession.

but the decoupling story seems alive in brazil and russia. I think the unexpected story of 2008 will be brazil continuing to blast higher. it could be like the US in 1996 or 1997.. still plenty more room to go. maybe it will.. they're still like 13x earnings and interest rates are coming down, so now is the time for multiple expansion.

russia also looks good. the RSX also appears to be developing an uptrend.

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